The Fall of the American Empire

The pre-election slogan of Obama «change», which envisaged the creation of millions of work places in the country, does not come true. The crisis continues to deepen threatening the position of the USA as the world super power. The ‘Itar Tass’ news agency announced on the 24th of February that nearly 702 banks are on the verge of bankruptcy in the US. The unemployment rate stands now at the level of 9.7% and includes around 15 million people according to the US official statistics published in January 2010. 2.4 millions of people lost their work after Obama had become the President.

While having all the «classical» features of the empires (financial supremacy, powerful military presence in other countries and ethnic diversity), the USA is sentenced to the fate of empires.

Problems related to financial-economic, military, structural, social and geopolitical fields will be presented here below and they prove the thesis that there is a forthcoming trend of losing the USA supremacy in the world.

The immediate problem that threatens the USA is the danger of becoming bankrupt since for the past 30 years the external debt of the country rose from 909 billion to 12 trillion US dollars in November 2009. The level of the debt, which has a tendency to grow, makes it impossible to pay off. This may entail the loss of the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency thereby depriving the US of the number one opportunity to influence the world.

The repudiation of the US dollar as the main currency is currently in the process of intensification. Iran, Turkey, Venezuela, Argentine, Brazil, Cuba, and Bolivia had already abandoned the US dollar as the main international currency. The idea of abandoning the American currency is presently considered by such powerful states as China, Russian and India.

The head of the International Monetary Fund (the IMF) Dominique Strauss-Kahn already in November 8, 2009 announced that the US dollar’s days of being the international reserve currency are numbered while he was in China with the official visit.

The ongoing military activities in Iraq and Afghanistan also threaten to bring about the phenomenon of the «second Vietnam». The US continues to increase the number of its troops in Afghanistan. The expenses in Afghanistan reached the amount of 300 billions of dollars. Last year Obama made an announcement in the «West Point Military Academy» that he signed a decree to send 30 000 thousands of additional troops to Afghanistan.

The sending of the additional troops to Afghanistan is a huge burden for the economics of country which is already in a very difficult situation. This fact in turn affects an increase of taxes with all entailing consequences such as the lowering of the level of welfare and the competiveness of the American goods. In addition to that, the continuation of the military operations in Iraq with the 250 000 large American army staying there for 5 years entailed the expenses as large as 1 trillion dollars starting from 2003 till now. Besides, the US stands in front of serious military problems in Afghan front as the increase of the number of troops is based on the intention to prevail over the forces of Taliban there. However, the Soviet experience in Afghanistan in 1979-1989 years demonstrated that this might be a faulty logic.

The President Obama has recently endorsed the US military budget around 680 billion dollars. The deficit of the state budget is going to be a record high reaching 1.8 trillion dollars which is 180 times more than the level of 1998.

The financial and economic crisis is looming large for the US too given the current state budget deficit and the military budget. These negative outcomes are going to touch on other fields of the life precisely because of the high level of expenses foreseen in the military budget.

The third international financial crisis in row that started in the 2007 and the "overproduction" of the US dollar inflicts a heavy blow to the US economics with the view of the compared growth of the services and goods. In particular, such prominent banks as Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Washington Mutual went bankrupt or lost their positions.

A noticeable portion of the population losing employment could not retain its property due to the inability to pay off the mortgages. The people found themselves in the streets. Given the accessibility and availability of the free sold weapons, the increased level of the homeless Americans is fraught with the anarchy and the danger of a civil war.

The number of prisoners per capita makes the US number of one in the world. 715 prisoners come per each 100 000 of population. The overall number of the prisoners is 2.5 million people.

Chinese and Russian counter influence on the US supremacy started to grow for the past four years too. For example, the Russian-Georgian war reestablished the Russian prevalence in the region and delivered a blow to the US positions. The US failed to provide a real assistance to its ally Georgia and Russia confirmed its military presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia by concluding treaties.

Despite the international crisis, Chinese economics continued to show its growth by 8.7% in 2009 and by 10% in 2010 according to the IMF forecast. Besides, China increasingly shows the desire to become the world hegemony. It modernizes the armament of its armies and steps up efforts in the development of space technology.

The fifth administrative division has its weak spots. The states have relatively high autonomy from the central authority to which they are subject. As a result, they have trends towards secession. Each federal state has its special constitution, laws and judiciary as well as executive. They are in fact independent states. The secession proneness of the American states has its precedent in the past. In 1861-1865 the south states wanted to secede from the Union. The insufficient funding of the states today created serious discontent with the central authorities. In this respect it is interesting to note that the banner of the California state bears the title the «Republic of California».

The mentioned above facts witness that the US will encounter serious issues in the near future thereby losing its role of powerful empire.

Hakob Vardanyan

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